India and Pakistan are engaged in another skirmish, and this latest fighting is a good time to remind people of how a war between the two nuclear-armed nations would affect Russia and China (and their focus on the U.S.). The skirmish is also a good time to remind people of why I’ve largely stopped writing open-source intelligence assessments (and pretty much every other type of nonfiction writing).
Back in 2018, I wrote “How an India-Pakistan War Would Distract China and Russia from the U.S.” Fairly in-depth, highly insightful, and unlike anything you’d find anywhere else.
And no one cared about it.
Feel free to read it now. It’s still on-point. And it’s particularly worthwhile to read considering that the U.S. is no longer capable of winning wars.
Image at top excerpt of reference map from the CIA World Factbook.
I disagree with your assessment that Islamic jihadis would be drawn to a war between Pakistan and India. Pakistan and India have squared off before, and I’ve seen nothing to indicate jihadis joined in. I also don’t agree that the Islamic jihadis would join Pakistan to side with China against India, given that the Chinese are holding upwards of a million Uighur Muslims in “internment” camps (as reported late 2018). There are too many opportunities for jihad closer to home (Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Gaza, Yemen, pick a country in Africa, etc.).
It’s nice to dream that a war between nuclear powers half a world away wouldn’t involve us.
p-squared: It’s possible my assessment is wrong, but I don’t think it is.
Pakistan and India may have squared off before, but it’s been some time since it’s been an actual war (not a skirmish). And if that happens, in modern times, then there is no reason to believe jihadis wouldn’t join.
And the Chinese treatment of the Uighurs wouldn’t be that big of an issue for multiple reasons. First, it wouldn’t be China fighting India with Pakistan assisting; it would be Pakistan fighting India with China assisting (on its face, at least). And that would be a huge difference.
Secondly, we’ve already seen this regarding the Chinese treatment of the Uighurs: “Pakistan Defends Ally China’s Crackdown on Muslims: Foreign Media ‘Sensationalized’ Issue” (Breitbart, Dec. 21, 2018). The Chinese are not Americans. Thus, they do not care about “winning hearts and minds.” They will do whatever it takes to win and will not tolerate Islamic terrorist attacks like Americans do. Pakistan knows this (hence its statement) and Islamic jihadists know this. That doesn’t mean they are happy about it. And it doesn’t mean they wouldn’t / won’t strike against China if given the chance. But in a war between Pakistan and India, they would join Pakistan, and they’d simply welcome whatever training, weapons, and support China would give them at the time.
Thirdly, Pakistan and Islamic jihadists are already coordinating with China in one fashion or another . . . in Afghanistan. The Chinese have been backing Pakistan’s war on American troops in Afghanistan for a long time. [See, for example, “Opinion: China Will Win Afghanistan — To America’s Embarrassment – by Lawrence Sellin, Retired Colonel, U.S. Army Reserve” (The Daily Caller, Dec. 04, 2018).]
Finally, what has caused this latest skirmish between Pakistan and India? Literally Islamic jihadists in Pakistan attacking Indian troops. (“India strikes Jaish-e-Mohammad camp inside Pakistan,” The Long War Journal, Feb. 26, 2019) So it’s not “if” jihadists would assist Pakistan in a war against India, it’s “they already are” assisting Pakistan in a skirmish that they appear to want to become a full-blown war with India.
As to the U.S. deciding that it would have to become involved in a war between two (four, really, when you count China and Russia), well, that could happen. But to say that it would have to happen doesn’t really make sense to me.
The question is, will the Pakis allow themselves to be drawn into a war with India because JeM are attacking across the border? The Pakis are playing the traditional game of “Terrorists? What terrorists?” whereby the Islamists operate out of their country but without their knowledge/sanction (cough cough). The same game they are playing with us in Afghanistan.
When I said the war wouldn’t involve us, I wasn’t specific and that is my bad. I can’t imagine a scenario where we don’t get involved in the negotiations to end such a war, if it were to pop off. I didn’t mean to imply we would put boots on the ground and take a side.
You might be right.